How Low-Rate Homeowners in the East Bay Are Still Making Moves in 2026
If you bought your home between 2020 and 2022 and locked in a rate between 2.75 and 3.5 percent, you are sitting on something genuinely valuable. And if you have been telling yourself you can never move because of that rate, you are not alone. But you may be limiting yourself more than the math actually requires.
The question is not whether your current rate is great. It obviously is. The question is whether staying is the right decision for your life right now.
I am Katrina Carter, an East Bay broker and loan officer who works with longtime homeowners thinking through exactly this kind of decision. The rate conversation is one I have almost every week, and the answer is rarely simple.
Why Low-Rate Homeowners Feel Stuck
When you have a 3 percent mortgage and current rates are in the 6 to 7 percent range, a move-up purchase can feel like a financial step backward. In pure payment terms, it often is, at least initially. That feeling is real and the math behind it is real.
But the full calculation is more complicated than just comparing two interest rates.
The Variables That Change the Picture
Home values in the East Bay have continued to appreciate. If you bought in 2020 or 2021, you have likely gained $300,000 or more in equity depending on your market and your property. In neighborhoods like Lafayette, Danville, Orinda, and San Ramon, some homeowners are sitting on $600,000 to $900,000 in equity or more.
That equity changes what a next purchase actually looks like. A larger down payment means a smaller loan, which partially offsets the higher rate. The ability to buy without contingencies, or to move quickly in a competitive situation, also has real value that does not show up in a payment calculator.
What a Move Actually Costs: A Real Example
Say you have a $1.1 million home with a $600,000 balance at 3 percent. Your current payment is around $2,500 per month in principal and interest.
You sell for $1.4 million and net roughly $750,000 after costs and payoff. You buy at $2.2 million with $750,000 down. Your new loan is $1.45 million at 6.75 percent. Your new monthly payment is around $9,400 per month.
That is a significant jump. For some people, the jump is not worth it. For others who are moving into a larger home, a better situation for their family, or a property that genuinely fits the next chapter of their life, the numbers work out.
What East Bay Homeowners in This Situation Are Actually Doing
Some are waiting. Others are making the move now because life does not wait for interest rates. A divorce, a new child, aging parents who need to be closer, a retirement that has finally arrived, a job relocation — these things happen on their own schedule regardless of what the Fed is doing.
Some are using structures to close part of the payment gap. A seller-paid rate buydown, a longer rate lock, or an adjustable rate mortgage with a fixed initial period can reduce the payment difference in the early years while giving the homeowner time to see where rates land.
The Thing Most People Are Not Thinking About
If you stay in your current home and rates do eventually come down, everyone else also refinances and re-enters the market at the same time. Prices could rise further as demand picks back up. The opportunity to buy at today's prices, even with a higher rate, may actually be more favorable than buying at tomorrow's prices with a lower one.
That is not a prediction. Nobody knows where rates or prices are going. But it is a factor worth including in your thinking rather than assuming that waiting is always the conservative choice.
A Client Story
I recently worked with a couple in their early 50s who had a 2.875 percent rate on a home they had outgrown. They had been saying for two years that they would move when rates came down. After a real conversation about their equity, their timeline, and what they actually wanted the next 20 years to look like, they decided to move. The wife said it was the first time the decision felt like a choice they were making rather than something they were waiting to be allowed to do.
FAQ
Is there any way to keep my low rate when I move? In most cases, no. Conventional mortgages are not assumable. VA and FHA loans can sometimes be assumed by a qualified buyer, which is worth asking your lender about for your specific loan type.
What if I rent my current home instead of selling? Some homeowners use this approach. There are tax implications, property management considerations, and qualifying challenges if you are trying to carry both mortgages. Worth exploring carefully with both a lender and a tax advisor.
How do I know if I have enough equity to make a move work? A quick conversation with a local agent and loan officer can give you a real number in about 20 minutes. You do not need to commit to anything to find out where you stand.
Should I wait for rates to drop to 5 percent before I move? Maybe. Maybe not. The right answer depends on your life situation, your equity, and your goals, not just a rate number.
Curious what a move would actually look like for your specific situation? Let's talk through the numbers.
Katrina Carter
Broker Associate | Loan Officer
Call or text: 510.288.6002
